Kenyan households are feeling the pinch as maize flour prices surge to their highest level in over a year. The cost of a two-kilogram packet of fortified maize flour has climbed sharply, reflecting a tightening maize supply that is putting pressure on millers and consumers alike.
What’s Driving the Price Hike?
Several factors have converged to push maize flour prices upward:
- Maize Supply Shortages: Local maize stocks have dwindled significantly, especially in key milling regions like the North Rift. This scarcity is partly due to substantial maize exports to neighbouring countries such as Uganda and South Sudan, where farmers fetch higher prices immediately after harvest.
- Regional Demand and Price Competition: Uganda and South Sudan’s recent crop failures and increased demand have led them to source maize from Kenya, further depleting domestic supplies. With maize prices in Uganda and South Sudan higher than in Kenya, cross-border trade has intensified, tightening local availability.
- Global and Regional Production Challenges: Poor harvests in other African countries like Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa have strained the regional maize supply chain. Kenya is increasingly reliant on imports from Tanzania, but these too face supply and price pressures.
- Inflation and Rising Costs: The cost of maize, which accounts for about 80% of flour production expenses, has surged. For example, the price of a 90-kilogram bag of maize jumped from around Sh5,200 to Sh6,500 recently, escalating production costs for millers.
How Much Have Prices Increased?
- The price of a two-kilogram packet of maize flour has risen from about Sh120 to over Sh150 in recent months, with some reports noting average prices reaching Sh169.41 or higher.
- In some premium brands, prices have breached the Sh200 mark, a historic high that reflects the severity of the supply crunch.
- Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data shows that the price increase is the steepest in 14 months, with monthly rises of nearly 3% and annual increases exceeding 14% in some cases.
Impact on Consumers and Businesses
Maize flour is a staple food in Kenya, essential for preparing ugali, a dietary cornerstone. The price increases are squeezing household budgets, especially for low- and middle-income families who spend a significant portion of their income on food.
Millers are also feeling the strain. Some have reduced production or temporarily suspended operations due to maize shortages, while others have set up operations near borders to secure supplies. This disruption threatens food security and the stability of the milling industry.
Government Response and Outlook
The Kenyan government has acknowledged the crisis and announced measures to ease the pressure:
- Plans to release maize from the National Strategic Food Reserve.
- Facilitating the importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize.
- Implementing a 50% duty waiver on maize imports to encourage supply and reduce competition between animal feed producers and millers.
However, experts remain cautious about the long-term effectiveness of these interventions, citing systemic challenges such as inflated production estimates, poor-quality seeds, fragmented landholdings, and climate-related risks that continue to hamper maize yields.
What Lies Ahead?
With regional demand high and global supply chains still fragile, maize flour prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term. The government’s ability to stabilize prices will depend on securing affordable maize imports and improving domestic production.
For Kenyan consumers, the current price hike is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of food security to both local and regional factors. As the nation navigates these challenges, ongoing monitoring and proactive policies will be critical to ensuring affordable access to this vital staple.
In summary, maize flour prices in Kenya have hit a 14-month high due to tightening maize supplies driven by regional demand, export pressures, and production challenges. While government measures aim to mitigate the crisis, consumers and millers face continued uncertainty in the coming months.